Theory & Calculations

Basis for predictions

My projections are based on personal experiences, the experiences of a few others (read the three articles below), and a little bit of science.

• On Food and Cooking: Long-Distance Fuel Strategies, by Ryan Jordan
• How Far, How Fast, How Heavy? Predicting the range of an unsupported long-distance trek. , by Roman Dial
• The Colorado Trail Alpine Style, by by Demetri Coupounas

The 70-lb pack limit

If I were interested in finding first-hand the ultimate limits of a self-contained backpacking trip, I would start with a pack that I could barely shoulder, which I figure would be in the 120-150 pound range. But I really do not want to do that -- I guess I'm not a full-blown masochist. My body is already going to be screaming at me with a 70-lb pack, which will contain enough stuff to help me get a handle on the questions I seek to answer. I'll extrapolate to determine the rest.

Moreover, a 70-lb load is currently manageable for me, without tremendous concern about stress-related injuries. If I wished to start with a pack that weighed 120-150 pounds I would have to have trained for it all year because the stress placed on my body would be far beyond my normal limits.

Calculations

Below are my calculations. Read Ryan's article for an explanation of some of the assumptions.