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Global Warming & the Great Western Loop
The Great Western Loop passes through many of the most pristine and cherished wild lands in the Lower 48, including places like Glacier and Yellowstone, the High Sierra, the Indian Peaks and San Juan's, and the Mojave Desert. These areas are among the most awe-inspiring on the planet -- they provide a sense of wonderment, tranquility, humility, and excitement about life no man-made feature can rival. They have been, and continue to be, favorite destinations for generations of vacationing families, tourists, and outdoor enthusiasts who are looking for a temporary respite from fluorescent lights, traffic jams, and rat races. They have become a fixture in America's heritage and identity.
And, sadly, our environmentally reckless behavior -- namely the unbridled pumping of global warming-causing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere -- is adversely and increasingly affecting many of their most magnificent features, including their wildlife, vegetation, and snow-capped summits.
Imagine Glacier National Park without any of its namesake glaciers, and Mt Rainier and Glacier Peak with far fewer and much smaller ones. Or, Joshua Tree National Park without its Joshua trees. Or, Colorado with a lot less of its magnificent tundra expanses. Or, Greater Yellowstone with an on-the-brink-of-extinction grizzly bear population. Or, a ski season at Lake Tahoe or Snoqualmie that begins after the holidays and ends before February vacation.
I wish I could say that these were unfounded gloom-and-doom predictions of some hysteria-desiring left-wing amateur researcher, but by all credible accounts America's wonderful West is likely to offer a notably different outdoor experience in the future, in some respects a shell of what it once was. Oftentimes change is good, but in this case it indeed is not.
The Reality of Global Warming
Before talking about global warming in the West, it is perhaps still appropriate to talk about global warming in general. Still a climate skeptic? It is very difficult to be nowadays, with an ever-increasing volume of evidence indicating that global warming is happening at an unnatural rate, and that this is an effect of human activity, namely the burning of fossil fuels like oil, coal, and natural gas that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The consensus of the scientific community pegs the rise at 1.3 degrees F since 1880, and it predicts increases of 3.2 to 7.2 degrees F by the end of the century. With so much convincing evidence, many organizations, researchers, and policy makers now accept a rapidly-heating planet as a bygone conclusion and have refocused their efforts on determining the most appropriate course of action, which is a debate that is still ongoing.
The purpose of this page is not to explain the basic science and realities of global warming, so I instead will provide a Global Warming Resources page with a few of the most credible resources available on this issue. In the last year global warming has rightfully received unprecedented attention from the media -- thank you Al Gore, perhaps -- but I personally have take confidence in reading original material from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Geological Survey (USGS), and the Treasury of the United Kingdom.
If you are interested in less heavy reading, you may want to check out Grist, an online publication with environmental news and commentary, specifically its feature, "How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic."
And if you haven't done so already, please see Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth."
Effects of Global Warming on the West
Based on the scientific evidence (see above), this section takes as fact that global temperatures are increasing at an unnatural rate and that human activity is the primary cause of this.
While temperatures may be rising globally, the rise is not universal, i.e. many places have become and/or will become warmer, but some have stayed and/or will stay the same or even cool down. In the West, unfortunately, the temperature increase in the last century is about twice the global average of 1.3 degrees F. And if we remain on a business-as-usual (BAU) course, it is projected that the West will experience a temperature increase of 4 to 5 degrees by 2050 and 7 to 8 degrees by 2100. Seeing as how temperatures regularly change 15 or 20 degrees in any given day, this may not seem like much, but it is very significant -- it is the difference between the average temperatures in Portland, OR, and Los Angeles, CA -- and it will have significant implications for the West and the outdoor experience it provides.
Hydrological Patterns
Forecast. Already a huge issue in the West, water will probably become even bigger in the future. Global precipitation patterns are likely to change, though exactly how is currently unclear; a preliminary report from the IPCC indicated that the Southwest may get drier and the Northwest may get wetter, though the latter's gains are likely to be offset by higher temperatures. Whatever happens with precipitation, it is known that warmer temperatures will mean: less precipitation will fall as snow and more as rain; peak melt-off dates will be earlier in the spring; more surface water will evaporate; and glaciers will melt even faster. Trickle-down effects may include increased need for water storage and adaptation or extinction of sensitive wildlife and vegetation.
Implications. If you are a skier, you may have to cope with shorter seasons, less snow, and poorer snow quality. Hikers and backpackers, meanwhile, will be able to enter the high-country earlier in the season and may discover new non-technical routes to formerly glaciated summits; but Fall trips will become more difficult due to springs and streams drying up earlier. Desert lovers will have to deal with hotter and drier conditions. Whitewater enthusiasts may encounter smaller peak flows and more water storage construction. And photos taken during summer trips to Rocky Mountain, Tetons, Winds, Glacier, High Sierra, Olympics and other places will be notably absent of dramatic snow-capped peaks and massive glaciers, including in Glacier National Park.
Ecological Shifts
Forecast. Ecological systems are extremely sensitive to temperature -- just consider the differences in vegetation and wildlife found 1,000 vertical feet apart, which usually corresponds to a ~3-degree temperature difference. As the West warms up, some wildlife will have to migrate to survive, assuming it can migrate -- Where is a ptarmigan to go if its entire tundra is absorbed by the forest? Or what about a grizzly bear that is boxed into an increasingly inadequate ecosystem by mountain homes and gas/oil drilling infrastructure? Likewise, vegetation will have to take root in more conducive areas -- again, if it can. Non-native species may unintentionally thrive in the new environment, like how deer have done in suburbs, and may further strain the continued existence of native species.
Implications. Visitors to Joshua Tree National Park may encounter the skeletons of about 90 percent of the park's current population of its namesake trees by mid-century. Trail Ridge Road in Rocky Mountain National Park will probably pass through smaller tundra and feature an earlier and less robust alpine flower season. Ponderosa and pinon pines in the Southwest will continue to struggle surviving in the face of drought, wildfires, and disease. Species in sensitive habitats like marmots, pikas, and ptarmigan will struggle, particularly if they have no where to go. Ditto for grizzly bears, which are under increasing pressure from development around the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem and from the infestation of pine beetles into the region's whitebark pine forests (which take root at higher elevations that have been less conducive to the beetle's existence), which the grizzlies rely on for fatty pine nuts before going into hibernation.
Heat
Forecast and Implications. A rise in temperatures means 'hot,' and hot usually means 'dry.' Wildfires and droughts may become more common and more extreme, which puts ever-sprawling desert cities and ever-expanding mountain suburbs at greater risk. It is dreadful to think about, but imagine if California's precipitation this winter becomes their new norm… Areas that are already hot, like Death Valley and Canyonlands, will become just about intolerable -- race organizers of the Badwater Ultramarathon may have to reconsider their race date. Because of the intense heat at lower elevations, crowds may flock to the relatively cooler temperatures in the mountains. Wait a minute, that may actually be a good thing, since I am pretty sure that this would strengthen the constituency that wants to preserve and protect our remaining wild lands instead of continuing to exploit and adversely affect them.
What You Can Do
To date most public discussion about global warming has been about whether it is "a reality" or "a hoax," though this seems to be slowly changing with a corresponding growing acknowledgment that it is a problem and that action is needed. I think we need to do two things:
- Make an honest and far-reaching effort to reduce your environmental impact. On this website I have written about what I call the Lightweight Lifestyle, which is a byproduct of the lessons I have learned through my outdoor experiences and a personal desire to preserve the integrity of the world's wild lands. I have also written an article on How to Lighten Up. Part of the challenge today in reducing our environmental impact is that we have limited options -- so you also may want to consider petitioning your government (via correspondence and cause-based mobilization) and large corporations (via your wallet) in order to more rapidly bring about change.
- Get outside, and get others outside. Those who have a deep relationship with the natural world have a greater incentive to protect it and a greater understanding of what a sustainable existence entails. As more people have moved "off the farm" into nature-less urban areas and superficially natural suburban neighborhoods, we seem to have lost this connection. If I did not know what it was like to hike along a 12,000-foot ridge amidst a sea of aromatic wildflowers, or to see a grizzly bear in its natural habitat foraging for huckleberries, or to take a nap on the sandy beach of an alpine lake, I am not sure I would care either. With people seeming to be continually busier, more stressed, and more electronically tethered, it seems that the outdoors' simplicity and tranquility is more necessary now than it ever has been.
References
Most of the information, projections, and forecasts contained on this page can be found in the references listed below and on the Global Warming Resources Page. I have not provided documentation for claims that I felt were widespread public knowledge or that I felt were sufficiently intuitive.
National Wildlife Federation: Global Warming
Nijhuis, Michelle. "Global Warming's Unlikely Harbingers." High Country News (19 July 2004).
Rocky Mountain Climate Organization. "Less Snow, Less Water: Climate Disruption in the West."
Whipple, Dan. "Global Warming Report: Less Winter in the West?" New West (9 Feb 2007).